Vintage

The Mediterranean Union: a Substitute for the Arab Maghreb Union?

It is almost incredible that both the Moroccans and the Algerians are more interested in the future of the Mediterranean Union than French President Nicolas Sarkozy. This is attributed to the fact that each wants the Union tailored to suit its issues. The Algerians want to make use of the French apology over years of exploitation in political and commercial agreements. On the other hand, the Moroccans, confident of French commitments, want the union to reinforce their tendency to be more open to the North.

The irony in the calculations of the two neighboring countries is that they seem to be trying to make the Mediterranean Union a substitute for the Arab Maghreb Union despite the fact that the latter is a more natural choice by all objective historical and geographic standards and ties.

The Arab Maghreb Union should have been transformed into a platform to reinforce the position of North African countries in negotiating the challenges of European partnership and dealing with the logic of differential relations with the countries south of the Mediterranean, a position which has been affected by the opening to Eastern European countries. Instead, any foothold in the Mediterranean Union now has priority, as indicated by the fact that Maghrebine-European meetings, within the framework of the 5+5 system or any other, have not been delayed a single day. On the other hand, strictly Maghrebine dialogue drags them back to the debris of unresolved conflicts which have prevented the convention of a Maghrebine Summit for almost 14 years.

In connection with the Western Sahara conflict which has impeded the efforts to build the Maghreb Union, Rabat once resorted to ratifying a fishing agreement with the European Union similar to its prior bilateral agreement with Spain, with a political implicit acknowledgement by Europe's fishing fleets of Morocco's sovereignty over all of the Western Sahara. On the other hand, Algeria's natural gas flows profusely to Europe and none of the quarrels between Morocco and Algeria bother the Europeans as long as interests are secure.

Originally, the Mediterranean Union which now seems like a trendy hit, was intended as smart attempt at cloning the US economic peace plan for the Middle East and North Africa. Initiated at the Casablanca summit in 1994, it went around many Arab capitals before failing as a result of the implications of the Middle East crisis. The fact is that the revised version of the Mediterranean Union follows the same methodology to attract the North African countries which are the least affected by developments in the Levant. Consequently, betting on a breakthrough in inter-Maghreb relations remains dependant on the will of the states in question rather than on the marketing of emotions. Whether the region is drawn to unconditional support of the Mediterranean Union, or whether it retains some reservations concerning some of its political objectives, it remains a European vision which takes into account the expansion of the European Union and the potentials of forming alliances and ongoing rivalries with the United States.

The leaders of the Maghreb countries have received plenty of advice and seen numerous efforts to rebuild and revive the Arab Maghreb Union from European capitals. Even Washington, in its attempt to restore its relations with North Africa, suggested political and economic partnership involving Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Undoubtedly, it finds the idea more appealing now that the Libyan Jamahiriya has joined the camp of submission. European and American wishes are probably not intended to satisfy political whims, but to be part of a comprehensive strategic outlook. Worsening relations between Algeria and Morocco are not what such partners are afraid of: they are but the salt and pepper of regional circumstances. Their concern is that of security, a concern made worse with widening illegal migration movements as well as rising terrorism and the threat of instability.

Just as Europeans perceive North Africa as a geographical extension that secures resources and necessities, nothing scares them more than making their southern borders exposed to the implications of such phenomena. From a security-based perspective, the Mediterranean Union serves to fence the European space with the greatest possible degree of protection.

What is missing in the outlook of the North African countries is not merely that they are drawn to the initiatives launched by others, but the complete absence of any will to take initiative. Many notions and propositions have been altered under the impact of international developments, and yet, nothing that has changed. In fact, Moroccan-Algerian relations, bad enough during the Cold War for considerations stemming from the discrepancy of views and choices, have grown worse and more critical in the era of openness. It is certain that the Mediterranean Union will not come into existence simply to please the Moroccans and Algerians.