Vintage

Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev plan to rule jointly. It may not work

PITY Dmitry Medvedev. He is just three weeks from becoming president, and the man he is meant to replace keeps stealing his limelight—and his power. Vladimir Putin formally steps down on May 7th. But he has already ensured that he will stay on as prime minister, and on April 15th he accepted the “invitation” to become leader of the ruling United Russia party, a political movement created by the Kremlin. “I am ready to take on the additional responsibility,” he told a specially-convened party congress.

Mr Putin spent the eight years since he was first elected president building up the powers of the office. He neutered the once-combative legislature and appointed prime ministers distinguished only by their loyalty: Mikhail Fradkov and, since last year, the even duller Viktor Zubkov.

Now Mr Putin is reversing the process, robbing the presidency of its omnipotence. As prime minister and party leader, he will have a tight grip on the country's finances and its regional elites. In theory, Mr Medvedev retains the constitutional right to sack him. But Mr Putin could change the constitution, given that he now leads a party that commands more than two-thirds of the seats in the Duma.

An optimistic view is that Russia could develop a better balance between the legislative and executive branches. “This is another step in the development of democracy, a wholly natural step,” says the chief of Russia's electoral commission, Vladimir Churov. Another charitable assessment is that Mr Putin is seeking to defend his protege from the powerful security service clans who distrust Mr Medvedev's liberal-sounding speeches on personal freedoms and corruption. Certainly Mr Medvedev shows no sign of complaining about his lot. Indeed, he added his voice to calls for Mr Putin to accept the party leadership, saying this was “logical and timely”.

The simplest explanation is that Mr Putin wants to retain power. One scenario is that Mr Medvedev will keep the seat warm for Mr Putin, who could legally seek a third, non-consecutive presidential term in 2012. Another possibility is that Mr Putin wants to revive something akin to the Soviet system, with Mr Medvedev playing the lesser role of chairman of the Supreme Soviet and Mr Putin embodying the more powerful general secretary of the Communist Party.

However, Russia's weak government might not survive living with two leaders, one in the Kremlin and one outside, like Russia's double-headed eagle. If it ever came to a contest, the seemingly invincible Mr Putin might even be the one to crumble. As prime minister he would find himself on the sharp end of many problems, not least rising inflation. And Mr Medvedev, despite his affable image, might be no pushover: by virtue of occupying the Kremlin, he would inevitably gather greater authority.

Published by the Economist, 17^th April 2008