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Putin's Plan To
Become 'Father Of A New Country'
...“Until mid-December, there was evidence that Putin was
having trouble choosing a successor for when his current term expires in March
2008. His anointing of First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev does not
necessarily make things simpler. Many believed the successor should come from
among the siloviki who form Putin's inner circle, or at least be acceptable to
them. It is unclear how Medvedev, who does not come from the ranks of the
siloviki, will hold up. Moreover, because these siloviki are divided among
themselves, it's unclear there is even such a thing as a candidate acceptable
to all factions -- one who will be recognized as the supreme commander by the entire
military and security community. Putin must also keep in mind that Russia is
the world's second most powerful nuclear power and Medvedev, if he remains the
successor of choice, must be an acceptable and predictable partner for the
international community, particularly the United States.
Some clues about Putin's intentions can be found in an
800-page manifesto issued last summer by a group of about 70 pro-Putin,
national-patriotic academics under the title "Russian Doctrine." The
book is presented as a set of "guidelines" for the next administration
and a kind of national, supra-party platform. It contains detailed foreign- and
domestic-policy proposals, including autocratic reforms to the military,
national-security system, the economy, the mass media, education, and culture.
Moreover, it was approved at the September World
Congress of Russian People, an annual event sponsored by the Kremlin and the
Russian Orthodox Church. Metropolitan Kirill, who handles foreign relations for
the Moscow Patriarchate and is one of the leading ideologues of the Putin
regime, took pains to praise it.
The "Russian Doctrine" presumes that the
Russian Federation is doomed to extinction because it will be unable to cope
with the looming challenges of international competition. Within the next
decade, the authors claim, Russia will increasingly begin to lag behind China,
India, the United States, and some Southeast Asian countries. In response, the
authors propose a new state structure based on the traditions of the Russian
Empire and the Soviet Union. Interestingly, they propose doing so without
dissolving the Russian Federation: that is, they urge the creation of a
"parallel state" initially operating unseen behind the facade of the
current one. It would consist of a system of political and economic institutions
accessible only to Putin and the siloviki that the authors call "the
invisible, networked Russia."
However, on closer inspection, the model described in
"Russian Doctrine" resembles neither tsarist Russia nor the Soviet
Union so much as it does the sociopolitical structures of Germany, Italy,
Spain, and Portugal in the 1930s.
...Two Russias
The phenomenon has not escaped the attention of
Russia's neighbors. The Ukrainian website glavred.ua wrote recently that there
are two Russias -- a proto-imperial Russia inside the country and a regular
country from the outside. Igor Panarin, a Russian expert on information wars
and a proponent of the new imperialism, told the website: "Inside the
country, in the virtual world, such an empire is, indeed, being created. This
is very good and it is to the credit of the current president. The next goal is
to expand this public relations campaign beyond Russia's borders."
In 2006, neo-imperialist author Mikhail Yuriev
published a science fiction utopia called "The Third Empire," in
which the action is set in 2053. In Yuriev's vision, the world then will be
covered by five super states -- India, China, the American Federation
(comprising North and South America), an Islamic caliphate, and the Russian
Empire. The latter includes all of Russia and the former Soviet republics and
also sweeps all the way across Western Europe and even encompasses Greenland.
In the text, Yuriev describes how Russia conquered Europe and Turkey in a
series of "expansionist wars."
Although Yuriev's vision is fantastic, it is not
completely divorced from reality. In early 2007, the Economic Development and
Trade Ministry published a report on Russia's economic development through
2020. The report contained an optimistic, a neutral, and a pessimistic forecast.
Under the optimistic forecast, Russia would emerge as one of the world's 10
most-developed countries by the end of the period. However, according to press
reports, Putin ordered the neutral and pessimistic scenarios removed and made
the optimistic scenario even rosier. Under Putin's vision, by 2020 Russia will
be among the world's top five most-developed countries, on a par with the
United States, China, India, and Japan. In short, Russia would be the most
advanced country in Europe, state television commented recently.
If Putin is indeed following a plan along the lines of
the "Russian Doctrine," then perhaps some of his next moves can be
anticipated as he leaves office and focuses on the creation of a new political
infrastructure and networks. The new president, a handpicked loyalist, might
undertake a large-scale purge of the 1990s elite from the state apparatus, the
mass media, and other positions of power. The "Russian Doctrine"
identifies this as a top priority.
Speaking to RFE/RL on December 1, liberal economist
Andrei Illarionov mentioned his concern that the new president might launch
mass repressions, including some that touch the security apparatus. The new
president might also be called upon to implement other reforms that are
expected to meet with resistance at home and abroad, including the possible
reform of the territorial-administrative divisions of the Russian Federation.
Regional Development Minister Dmitry Kozak has already drawn up a plan to
divide the country up into several "macroeconomic regions." Kozak
told reporters last week that the plan covers the period through 2020 and
"will be a leap forward in the development of various territories."
Then, after this dirty work has been done, a new draft
constitution, based on "conservative values," can be introduced.
Under it a new schedule of elections will be laid out and Putin can return to
the Kremlin in glory, the father of a new country.
But to implement this plan, Putin needs to be sure that
he has more legitimacy than his successor. That's why he turned the Duma
elections into a personal referendum. Taken together, Unified Russia and A Just
Russia pulled in more than 70 percent of the vote. Since the president elected
in March will be unlikely to get much more than 50 percent of the vote, Putin
will have an important "legitimacy edge." With Medvedev's call for
Putin to step in as a future prime minister, the plan would appear to be well
under way.”
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