Vintage

"Speculation about Russia's "2008 question" -- meaning who will be Russia's president one year from now -- is shifting into high gear. Russian pundits suggest both that the presidential term will be extended to seven years, and that incumbent President Vladimir Putin will again be elected president in 2012 (or 2015 in the case of an extended term.) Others claim that Putin will step down, but will continue to play a major role "behind the scenes," in the manner of the late Chinese Communist Party leader Deng Xiao-Ping. A more likely scenario is that Putin will indeed step down, but quickly assume the leadership of a multinational regional organization: either a revamped Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) or a more empowered Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Putin's future role could have a negative impact on his successor's ability to consolidate power and rule effectively. The Russian political elite routinely engages in intense disputes over the division of assets and power. The idea that any successor could referee these conflicts while deferring to a former president is questionable. Putin has built his popularity on an image as a strong leader. For him to retain a major leadership role would make it impossible for any successor to establish similar credentials.

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While a revised and revitalized CIS might be one vehicle for accomplishing the twin purposes of providing a new challenge for Putin and advancing Russian geopolitical interests, it could prove to be both too small a pond and too risky a venture. Another possibility would be for Putin to become the leader of an "upgraded" SCO. At the Valdai Club luncheon in September 2006, Putin spoke eloquently and at length about the "pleasant surprise" of the SCO evolving from a group of countries engaged in border delineation to a more substantive economic and security community.

Data collected by the Institute of Economic Analysis show that over the past two years, the pattern of Putin's summit meetings has shifted markedly away from OECD countries and toward nondemocratic states. On August 16, Putin will join other leaders for an SCO summit in Bishkek. He will also attend the "Peace Mission 2007" military exercises to be held in two stages, near Chelyabinsk and in Xinjiang. During a preparatory meeting for military exercises in Chelyabinsk, General Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian General Staff, reiterated Russia's view that the organization should assume a more significant role in security issues.  Assuming that the team Putin has created shares his views on the state's role in the economy (even while battling each other over the spoils) and supports his efforts to restore Russia's status as a Great Power, putting Putin's talents and experience to use within a multinational forum would be a way to advance their project. Doing so would elevate him to a senior position that would allow him a voice in Russian affairs, without emasculating his successor.   

Among Russian political leaders, Putin is the one with the best credentials to enhance the status and clout of either the CIS or SCO. Leading a multinational group of countries that align with Russia to counterbalance U.S. power would therefore be an ideal occupation for him in the next stage of his political career.”