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Russia believes
it is following its 'holy destiny' to lead the world
Russia’s military operations against Georgia and subsequent
recognition of Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence by the Duma are more
than power politics — Moscow’s actions are tied directly to a spiritual,
social-philosophical approach to Russian destiny. Increasingly, what we are
witnessing is the implementation of the “Russian Doctrine” or the “Sergius’
Project” begun in 2005 (St Sergius of Radonezh is considered “the eternal
protector and patron of Russia at times of hardship”) around the start of
Vladimir Putin’s second term as Russian president.
The proponents of this idea are writers, historians and
philosophers from the conservative Orthodox milieu. Understanding their beliefs
helps explain where we are now and what may happen next. Basically, the
“Russian Doctrine” seeks to illuminate Russia’s role in the world and
represents a swing back to pan-Slav nationals who see Russia as “The Third
Rome” in the name of Russian Orthodox Christianity. They regard the West as
corrupt and dismiss Western-style democracy.
This school now has an ascendancy over the “Westernisers”,
those who seek a European-style democratic state in which culture, rather than
military force, plays a central role. In such a system the state would not be
allowed to become stronger than society.
These ideas are not new, but are being brought forward into
the 21st century. For their adherents, Russia is emerging from an unequal fight
against the West where Russia played by foreign rules leading to the havoc at
the end of the 20th century that threatened the “spiritual sovereignty” of
Russia. Both President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin seek to reverse
this decline.
What are some of the ideas behind Russia’s emerging role in
the world? There are seven key notions to understand. First is the idea of
“future restoration”, that Russia needs to rebuild as the future belongs to
Russia. Second is the notion that Russia is the nation of sacred history and is
unique in terms of ethnic, cultural, and historical features. Third is the idea
of “Sensocracy” (smyslokratiya) that seeks to rebuild culture and have power
over ideas and develop new skill sets to support Russia.
Fourth, is autocracy, where power is in the hands of
Russians independent from any external force. Fifth, is the idea of creating a
Russian national economy instead of participating in the global economy. Sixth,
is demographic nationalism to reverse the population decline and create new
Russians.
Seventh – and most important – is the creation of a
“Northern civilisation” to replace the global dominance of the West and lead
the world to the “final events”. The “Russian Doctrine” argues that there will
not be a global order dominated by several civilisations or superpowers;
instead, the “Northern civilisation” will replace the West’s dominance. The
authors see Russia as the last centre of the world – the Third Rome – until the
end of humanity. They reiterate the idea that Russia has been raised above
other countries by God and, therefore, God demands more from Russia than other
nations.
What is happening now in the Caucasus is the next stage of
implementing the “Russian Doctrine”. Moscow’s recognition of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia follows the precedent created by the West over Kosovo. Following
Kosovo’s declaration of independence, the Russian parliament released a
statement reading: “Now that the situation in Kosovo has become an
international precedent, Russia should take into account the Kosovo scenario…
when considering ongoing territorial conflicts.” On April 16, 2008, as Mr Putin
was leaving the presidency, he instructed his government to establish official
ties with counterpart agencies in breakaway South Ossetia and Abkhazia thus
paving the path to where we are today.
Commentary by Russian officials now echoes many parts of the
“Russian Doctrine”. The idea of “we don’t need you” is directly taken from
these notions. President Medvedev said Russia is prepared to completely break
ties with Nato. Prime Minister Putin announced that World Trade Organisation
membership no longer interests Moscow. He added that Russia would soon be
pulling out of several WTO-related agreements, thereby paving the way for
Russia to formally withdraw its membership bid after more than a decade of
negotiations.
The “Russian Doctrine” may be used to recognise secessionist
regions in other countries. There are countless other regions – Transdniestria
in Moldova, for example – that are already stirring. A meeting between Medvedev
and the Moldovan President, Vladimir Voronin, held on the same day that Russia
recognised Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence is indicative of what is
to come. Medvedev told his Moldovan colleague that now is the time when the
solution of the Transdniestria problem is at hand. Ukraine is not immune
either.
Anywhere Russians hold Russian passports outside the Russian
Federation is considered by the “Russian Doctrine” to be a prerequisite for
becoming part of the Russian nation. The possibilities may be endless.
Overall, Russia’s behaviour and activity is the further
“operationalisation” of the “Russian doctrine”. By putting into practice key
attributes of the doctrine, Moscow is seeking to place herself at the forefront
of politics, economics, and social development in the 21st century. But
understanding the roots of this behaviour is the key to determining the
appropriate responses by both nations and business.
Dr Theodore Karasik is
Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East Gulf
Military Affairs (INEGMA)
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Russia